ArrowCreek411

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course commercial business (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs) and By-Laws). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations) is purely optional for interested and “approved” parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on the golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief  that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not based on factual data.

The ArrowCreek community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites (all started out as vacant lots), typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 484 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course (~361). This report contains the data that was available on July 29, 2022, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records. These records appear to be current.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was startling at only 3 (three) properties. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (20.6% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 26% (This number is highly suspect this month as the sale of homes on the golf course have fallen into a never-never land of statistical significance.) would certainly put ArrowCreek in line with the hottest markets in the country. Also, CNN reported that the hottest market in the country was Tampa with a 34.8% increase. ArrowCreek absolutely competes with the top markets in terms of value. These three (3) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $4.1 Million! One of the properties was directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ ‘Raw’ property adjoining the golf course has fallen statistically ‘out-of-contention’ since no property was sold during the past year in this category.

Since August of 2021 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $425 per square foot and Semi-Custom homes an identical ‘floor’ of $415 per square-foot to grow from. With three fully financed properties changing hands this past month, there was no most active neighborhood.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Three (3) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 16 June and 16 July (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 66 or 6.1% turnover rate for our community. From a National Publication (TheHill.com) this compares to the fact that only 8.4% of Americans live in a different home than they did a year ago and in Washoe County the number is 18.4% based upon the most recent census data. The aging of the U.S. population, a lack of new housing, and increased caution have produced the lowest rate of mobility recorded at any time since 1948. ArrowCreek remains at a very low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community. In fact, 193 (17.8%) of us have lived or owned property in ArrowCreek for more than 16 years.

b.) One (1) home and no vacant property were recorded as sold on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) during this reporting period. We use a 12-month rolling average to normalize home and land prices, The number of homes sold, in the ‘golf course’ category, barely meets the criteria for statistical analysis (11). As a consequence, the observed price escalation this month is once again highly suspect. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course jumped to $513.07 versus last month’s $492.04 per square foot. The price per square foot increased by $21.03 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price increased to $2,068,102.27 versus last month’s $1,989,510.42. No additional vacant parcels were sold over the previous 12-month period, so a price is unavailable for this type of property.

c.) One (1) home and one (1) property were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes decreased to $459.70 per square foot, which is down by $2.64 per square foot, based on a sample size of 45 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes decreased to $1,600,400.00 from last month’s $1,616,192.79. An additional vacant lot was sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing at $408,819.65 per acre versus last month’s $378,461.34 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since August of 2021, prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. However, it’s clear that prices and sales have softened over the past month, and we will have to observe what the coming months display. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder, as this ‘attitude’ may cause our prices to go lower to match those ‘down in the valley’ and, in fact, there is some evidence that that phenomenon is happening. Certainly, the lack of home sales adjoining the golf course may be one such indicator.

! Statistically this is not supportable.

2. Summer is here along with interest rate increases to cool down inflation, and the housing market continues to be barely alive. For those desiring a secure, safe environment with majestic views to raise a family, with abundant recreational opportunities, excellent schools, shopping, medical services and peace of mind, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. In point of fact, it is distorted due to the lack of sales of golf course homes. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities and relatively low fees should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since August 2021. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and within ArrowCreek, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values. However, as noted in the opening, only six homes were sold on the golf course in the past 4 months. Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater dollar value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective but not from a secure and safe environmental perspective. ArrowCreek’s value lies in our gated security, views, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of about $70 per square-foot for our homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference between Reno Custom homes and ArrowCreek homes.

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Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course commercial business (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs) and By-Laws). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations) is purely optional for interested and “approved” parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on the golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief  that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not  based on factual data.

The ArrowCreek community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites (all started out as vacant lots), typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 484 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course (~361). This report contains the data that was available on June 26, 2022, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records. These records appear to be current.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal rate of 7 (seven) properties. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (20.6% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 27.4% (This number is highly suspect this month as the sale of homes on the golf course have fallen into a neverland of statistical significance.) would certainly put ArrowCreek in line with the hottest markets in the country. Also, CNN reported that the hottest market in the country was Tampa with a 34.8% increase. ArrowCreek absolutely competes with the top markets. These seven (7) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $17.5 Million! Four of the properties were directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ ‘Raw’ property adjoining the golf course has fallen statistically ‘out-of-contention’ since no property was sold during the past year in this category.

Since July of 2021 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $425 per square foot and Semi-Custom homes an identical ‘floor’ of $415 per square-foot to grow from. With seven fully financed properties changing hands this past month, there was no most active neighborhood.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Seven (7) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 16 May and 16 June (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 76 or 7.0% turnover rate for our community. From a National Publication (TheHill.com) this compares to the fact that only 8.4% of Americans live in a different home than they did a year ago and in Washoe County the number is 18.4% based upon the most recent census data. The aging of the U.S. population, a lack of new housing, and increased caution have produced the lowest rate of mobility recorded at any time since 1948. ArrowCreek remains at a very low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community. In fact, 193 (17.8%) of us have lived or owned property in ArrowCreek for more than 16 years.

b.) Four homes and no vacant property were recorded as sold on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) during this reporting period. We use a 12 month rolling average to normalize home and land prices, The number of homes sold, in the ‘golf course’ category, barely meets the criteria for statistical analysis (12). As a consequence, the observed price escalation this month is highly suspect. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course jumped to $492.04 versus last months $433.20 per square foot. The price per square foot increased by $58.84 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price increased to $1,989,510.42 versus last months $1,668,177.08. No additional vacant parcels were sold over the previous 12 month period, so a price is unavailable for this type of property.

c.) Three (3) homes and properties were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes increased to $462.34 per square foot, which is up by $4.59 per square foot, based on a sample size of 52 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes increased to $1,616,192.79. No additional vacant lots were sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing at $378,461.34 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since July of 2021, prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. However, it’s clear that prices have softened over the past month and we will have to observe what the coming months display. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. One of the stunning features of this chart is the absolute difference between non-golf and golf related homes. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder, as this ‘attitude’ may cause our prices to go lower to match those ‘down in the valley’ and, in fact, there is some evidence that that phenomenon is happening. Certainly, the dirth of home sales adjoining the golf course may be one such indicator.

! Statistically this is not supportable.

2. Spring has sprung, and the housing market continues to be barely alive. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities and peace of mind, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. In point of fact, it is distorted due to the lack of sales of golf course homes. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained fairly constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities and relatively low fees should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since July 2021. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values along with ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes, both on and off the golf courses. However, as noted in the opening, only four homes sold on the golf course in the past 4 months. Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective but not from a secure and safe environmental perspective. ArrowCreek’s value lies in our views, gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of about $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference between Reno Custom homes and Custom homes on the golf course. However, those ArrowCreek Custom homes not on ‘the course’ exhibit a $40 to $80 advantage to both internal and external Custom homes.

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course business (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs) and By-Laws). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations) is purely optional for interested and “approved” parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on the golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief  that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not  based on factual data.

I’ve recently heard from one of our owners that our homes are selling for $500 per square foot. As you’ll see from the charts below, only a specific set of our homes are selling anywhere near this value. In fact, the vast majority are selling in the $430 per square foot range. Another resident told me that ‘The Club’ contributes to ALL of our home values. This is also a false ‘belief.’ If it were true, you should expect that values move consistently across our entire development, and they don’t. Also, when you look at the second graph of ArrowCreek values versus the rest of the Truckee Meadows, you’ll see that our home values are not outstanding above those in Reno, except for custom homes not on the golf course. So, be very careful in taking ‘opinions/beliefs’ as fact.

Our community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites, typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 482 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course. This report contains the data that was available on April 30, 2022, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records. These records appear to be current.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal rate of 8 (eight) properties. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (20.6% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 20.2% certainly puts ArrowCreek in line with the hottest markets in the country. Also, CNN reported that the hottest market in the country was Tampa with a 34.8% increase. ArrowCreek absolutely competes with the top markets. These eight (8) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $12.5 Million! Only one of the properties were directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ Currently ‘non-golf course homes’ enjoy a sales price advantage of 5.4% ($24.55 per square-foot) advantage over ‘golf course’ homes, with the advantage clearly noticed, as you’ll read below, in the value of custom homes. However, it was also noted that semi-custom homes ‘on-the-course’ are showing a higher value than custom homes ‘on-the course,’ an unexpected observation. This ‘advantage’ has now spread to undeveloped land as the price, as you will also read shortly, is only 4.5% higher for property that does not adjoin the golf course. Of course, ‘raw’ property adjoining the golf course has fallen statistically ‘out-of-contention’ since only one property was sold during the past year, in this category.

Since June of 2021 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $410 per square foot and semi-custom homes an identical ‘floor’ of $415 per square-foot to grow from. With eight fully financed properties changing hands this past month, the most active neighborhood was Chantalaine.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Eight (8) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 26 April and 17 May (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 81 or 7.5% turnover rate for our community. From a National Publication (TheHill.com) this compares to the fact that only 8.4% of Americans live in a different home than they did a year ago and in Washoe County the number is 18.4% based upon the most recent census data. The aging of the U.S. population, a lack of new housing, and increased caution have produced the lowest rate of mobility recorded at any time since 1948. ArrowCreek remains at a very low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community. In fact, 195 (18%) of us have lived or owned property in ArrowCreek for more than 16 years.

b.) One home and no vacant property were recorded as sold on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) during this reporting period. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course now stands at $433.20 per square foot. Based upon the statistical rolling average calculation (only 12 homes are currently in the calculation), this creates a situation where a single sale above or below the average skews the data, which is what likely has taken place over past several months. The price per square foot decreased by $3.58 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price decreased to $1,668,177.08, again based upon common statistical methods. No additional vacant parcels were sold and the rolling average selling price for undeveloped property on the golf course now stands at $361,544.79 per acre. It should be noted that there is only one (1) lot that make up this average and as a consequence, the statistical significance of this value is highly suspect.

c.) Seven (7) homes and properties were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes decreased to $457.75 per square foot, which is down by $3.59 per square foot, based on a sample size of 56 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes decreased to $1,592,500.45. One (1) additional vacant lot was sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing .5% above vacant golf course property at $378,461.34 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since June of 2021, prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. However, it’s clear that prices have softened over the past month and we will have to observe what the coming months display. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. One of the stunning features of this chart is the absolute difference between non-golf and golf related homes. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder, as this ‘attitude’ may cause our prices to go lower to match those ‘down in the valley’ and, in fact, there is some evidence that that phenomenon is happening. Certainly, the dirth of home sales adjoining the golf course may be one such indicator.

2. Spring has sprung, and the housing market continues to be barely alive. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities and peace of mind, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained fairly constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities and relatively low fees should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since June 2021. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values along with ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes, both on and off the golf courses. However, as noted in the opening, only one home sold on the golf course in the past 3 months. Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective but not from a secure and safe environmental perspective. ArrowCreek’s value lies in our views, gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of about $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference between Reno Custom homes and Custom homes on the golf course. However, those ArrowCreek Custom homes not on ‘the course’ exhibit a $40 to $80 advantage to both internal and external Custom homes.

For the past month the ArrowCreek rolling averages are:

• Semi-Custom On-Course: $470.02 per Square Foot
• Semi-Custom Off-Course: $436.48 per Square Foot
• Custom On-Course: $396.39 per Square Foot
• Custom Off-Course: $488.26 per Square Foot

• • We also received a request from one of our readers for a comparison of the ArrowCreek values with those in D’Andrea (Sparks market), Somersett (Reno market) and Saddlehorn. Having obtained the appropriate reports from the real estate community, here is what was learned. (Data extracted from altosresearch.com Chase International)

• • • Reno market ‘in general’ – Custom homes in Reno are selling, on average, for $462.48 per square foot (Median price $1,833,300). The average days on the market was 21 days. As noted from above, you can see our ArrowCreek comparable golf course Custom homes are selling at a discount to those in Reno, both custom and semi-custom. ArrowCreek average time on market was 63 days. Reno homes comparable to ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes are selling for $334.64 per square foot (Median price $950,000) with a time-on-market of 14 days. Median prices rose across the Reno market by 20.2% during the comparable past year, as you can see from the chart, while ArrowCreek combined average prices were 21.4% higher. (Note: ArrowCreek appreciation is now very much in line with the Reno market.)

• • • Sparks market ‘in general’ – Recently, some homes in Sparks have been identified as qualifying for ‘custom’ designation. These homes are definitely comparable to those in ArrowCreek from both a square footage and lot size perspective. The current average selling price for these homes is $298.36 per square foot (median price of $939,900) with a time on market of 21 days. The Sparks Semi-Custom market actually compares with the Semi-Custom homes in ArrowCreek. The average price for these Sparks homes is $275.60 per square foot (Median price $700,000) with an average of 14 days on the market. Median prices rose across this market by 15.8% during the comparable past year. It’s worth noting that the Sparks Semi-Custom market includes the D’Andrea market and with the revitalization of their golf course over the past two years, there hasn’t been an appreciable or corresponding increase in home values.

• • • Saddlehorn – In reviewing the records for this development, the sample size was too small to obtain meaningful information.

Commentary: ArrowCreek Custom homes continue to be in the top two quartiles of Reno and the Semi-Custom homes are in the top quartile of Reno and Sparks. In addition, the data suggests that the ‘private’ golf course (a.k.a. The Non-Residential Area of ArrowCreek) has little or a negative impact on prices because ArrowCreek homes are selling at roughly comparable non-gated community homes in the Truckee Meadows based upon real estate advertising and the data compiled in this report. Also, the ArrowCreek Homeowners Association does not, repeat does not, have a financial or any other fiduciary interest in ‘The Club at ArrowCreek (TCAC).’ TCAC is not an amenity of ArrowCreek. It is a separate and private entity.

Some owners of ArrowCreek believe they reside in a ‘golf community.’ Those words appear to emanate from those who have chosen to belong to the ‘private’ golf club. In their minds, it may be true; however, in fact, the truth is that only a third of the homes and lots are on the golf course and approximately 34% of owners are actually members of ‘The Club.’ Yes, we have a private golf club within our gated community that is not an HOA amenity, but we also enjoy the freedom to belong or not.

The ‘value proposition’ for our unique community should continue to focus on attracting professionals who value security, good schools, recreational opportunities, and the views and quietude of the High Desert. More people will come to ownership in ArrowCreek as Nevada businesses gather top talent with competitive salaries.

Please consider contributing your knowledge and energy to make our HOA better for all owners.

By Ron Duncan
May 31, 2022

For previous postings of the ArrowCreek property value updates: click here.

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course business (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs) and By-Laws). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations) is purely optional for all interested parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on the golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief  that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not  based on factual data.

I’ve recently heard from one of our owners that homes are selling for $500 per square foot. As you can see from the charts below, only a specific set of our homes are selling anywhere near this value. In fact, the vast majority are selling in the $430 per square foot range. Another resident told me that ‘The Club’ contributes to ALL of our home values. This is also a false statement. If it were true, you should expect that values move consistently, and they don’t. Also, when you look at the second graph of ArrowCreek values versus the rest of the Truckee Meadows, you’ll see that our home values are not outstanding above those in Reno, except for custom homes not on the golf course. So, be very careful in taking ‘opinions’ as fact.

Our community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites, typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 482 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course. This report contains the data that was available on April 30, 2022, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records. These records appear to be current.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal rate of 6 (six) properties. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (19.1% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 29.8% certainly should have qualified us for the list. Also, CNN reported that the hottest market in the country was Phoenix with a 32.9% increase. ArrowCreek absolutely competes with the top markets. These six (6) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $9.5 Million! None of the properties were directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ Currently ‘non-golf course homes’ enjoy a sales price advantage of 5.3% ($24.56 per square-foot) advantage over ‘golf course’ homes, with the advantage clearly noticed, as you’ll read below, in the value of custom homes. However, it was also noted that semi-custom homes ‘on-the-course’ are showing a higher value than custom homes ‘on-the course,’ an unexpected observation. This ‘advantage’ has now spread to undeveloped land as the price, as you will also read shortly, is only 0.23% higher for property that does not adjoin the golf course. Of course, ‘raw’ property adjoining the golf course has fallen statistically ‘out-of-contention’ since only one property was sold during the past year, in this category.

Since May of 2021 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $410 per square foot and semi-custom homes an identical ‘floor’ of $415 per square-foot to grow from. With six fully financed properties changing hands this past month, the most active neighborhood was Chantalaine.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Six (6) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 18 March and 15 April (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 89 or 8.2% turnover rate for our community. From a National Publication (TheHill.com) this compares to the fact that only 8.4% of Americans live in a different home than they did a year ago and in Washoe County the number is 18.4% based upon the most recent census data. The aging of the U.S. population, a lack of new housing, and increased caution have produced the lowest rate of mobility recorded at any time since 1948. ArrowCreek remains at a very low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community. In fact, 195 (18%) of us have lived or owned property in ArrowCreek for more than 16 years.

b.) No homes or property were recorded as sold on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) during this reporting period. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course now stands at $436.78 per square foot. Based upon the statistical rolling average calculation (only 13 homes are currently in the calculation), this creates a situation where a single sale above or below the average skews the data, which is what likely has taken place over past several months. The price per square foot increased by $6.31 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price increased to $1,729,086.54, again based upon common statistical methods. No additional vacant parcels were sold and the rolling average selling price for undeveloped property on the golf course now stands at $361,544.79 per acre. It should be noted that there is only one (1) lot that make up this average and as a consequence, the statistical significance of this value is highly suspect.

c.) Six (6) homes and properties were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes increased to $461.34 per square foot, which is up by $10.40 per square foot, based on a sample size of 54 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes increased to $1,599,537.50. One (1) additional vacant lot was sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing 1.4% above vacant golf course property at $366,780.88 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since May of 2021, prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. One of the stunning features of this chart is the absolute difference between non-golf and golf related homes. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder, as this ‘attitude’ may cause our prices to go lower to match those ‘down in the valley’ and, in fact, there is some evidence that that phenomenon is happening. Certainly the dirth of home sales adjoining the golf course may be one such indicator.

2. Spring is arriving slowly, and the housing market continues to be barely alive. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities and peace of mind, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained fairly constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since May 2021. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values along with ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes, both on and off the golf courses. However, as noted in the opening, only one home sold on the golf course in the past 3 months. Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective. ArrowCreek’s value appears to lie in our views, gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of about $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference between Reno Custom homes and Custom homes on the golf course. However, those ArrowCreek Custom homes not on ‘the course’ exhibit a $40 to $80 advantage to both internal and external Custom homes.

For the past month the ArrowCreek rolling averages are:

• Semi-Custom On-Course: $466.72 per Square Foot
• Semi-Custom Off-Course: $435.62 per Square Foot
• Custom On-Course: $411.11 per Square Foot
• Custom Off-Course: $505.06 per Square Foot

• • We also received a request from one of our readers for a comparison of the ArrowCreek values with those in D’Andrea (Sparks market), Somersett (Reno market) and Saddlehorn. Having obtained the appropriate reports from the real estate community, here is what was learned. (Data extracted from altosresearch.com Chase International)

• • • Reno market ‘in general’ – Custom homes in Reno are selling, on average, for $458.56 per square foot (Median price $1,804,150). The average days on the market was 14 days. As noted from above, you can see our ArrowCreek comparable golf course Custom homes on the golf course are selling at a discount to those in Reno, both custom and semi-custom. ArrowCreek average time on market was 63 days. Reno homes comparable to ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes are selling for $333.32 per square foot (Median price $924,000) with a time-on-market of 14 days. Median prices rose across the Reno market by 22.1% during the comparable past year, as you can see from the chart, while ArrowCreek combined average prices were 29.8% higher.

• • • Sparks market ‘in general’ – Recently, some homes in Sparks have been identified as qualifying for ‘custom’ designation. These homes are definitely comparable to those in ArrowCreek from both a square footage and lot size perspective. The current average selling price for these homes is $294.63 per square foot (median price of $939,900) with a time on market of 7 days. The Sparks Semi-custom market actually compares with the Semi-Custom homes in ArrowCreek. The average price for these Sparks homes is $271.84 per square foot (Median price $694,000) with an average of 14 days on the market. Median prices rose across this market by 19.3% during the comparable past year. It’s worth noting that the Sparks Semi-Custom market includes the D’Andrea market and with the revitalization of their golf course, over the past two years, there hasn’t been an appreciable or corresponding increase in home values.

• • • Saddlehorn – In reviewing the records for this development, the sample size was too small to obtain meaningful information.

Commentary: ArrowCreek Custom homes continue to be in the top two quartiles of Reno and the Semi-Custom homes are in the top quartile of Reno and Sparks. In addition, the data suggests that the ‘private’ golf course (a.k.a. The Non-Residential Area of ArrowCreek) has little or a negative impact on prices because ArrowCreek homes are selling at roughly comparable non-gated community homes in the Truckee Meadows based upon real estate advertising and the data compiled in this report. Also, the ArrowCreek Homeowners Association does not, repeat does not, have a financial or any other fiduciary interest in ‘The Club at ArrowCreek (TCAC).’ TCAC is not an amenity of ArrowCreek. It is a separate and private entity.

Some owners of ArrowCreek believe they reside in a ‘golf community.’ Those words appear to emanate from those who have chosen to belong to the ‘private’ golf club. In their minds, it may be true; however, in fact, the truth is that only a third of the homes and lots are on the golf course and approximately 34% of owners are actually members of ‘The Club.’ Yes, we have a private golf club within our gated community that is not an HOA amenity, but we also enjoy the freedom to belong or not.

The ‘value proposition’ for our unique community should continue to focus on attracting professionals who value security, good schools, recreational opportunities, and the views and quietude of the High Desert. More people will come to ownership in ArrowCreek as Nevada businesses gather top talent with competitive salaries.

Please contribute your knowledge and energy to make our HOA better for all owners.

By Ron Duncan
May 2, 2022

For previous postings of the ArrowCreek property value updates: click here.

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course business (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs) and By-Laws). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations) is purely optional for all interested parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on the golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief  that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not  based on factual data.

I’ve recently heard from one of our owners that homes are selling for $500 per square foot. As you can see from the charts below, only a specific set of our homes are selling anywhere near this value. In fact, the vast majority are selling in the $430 per square foot range. Another resident told me that ‘The Club’ contributes to ALL of our home values. This is also a false statement. If it were true, you should expect that values move consistently, and they don’t. Also, when you look at the second graph of ArrowCreek values versus the rest of the Truckee Meadows, you’ll see that our home values are not outstanding above those in Reno. So, be very careful in taking ‘opinions’ as fact.

Our community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites, typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 482 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course. This report contains the data that was available on March 30, 2022, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records. These records appear to be current.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal rate of 6 (six) properties. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (19.1% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 28.6% certainly should have qualified us for the list. These six (6) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $8.4 Million! One of the properties was directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ Currently ‘non-golf course homes’ enjoy a sales price advantage of 4.5% ($20.47 per square-foot) advantage over ‘golf course’ homes, with the advantage clearly noticed, as you’ll read below, in the value of custom homes. However, it was also noted that semi-custom homes ‘on-the-course’ are showing a higher value than custom homes ‘on-the course,’ an unexpected observation. This ‘advantage’ has now spread to undeveloped land as the price, as you will also read shortly, is only 0.23% higher for property that does not adjoin the golf course. Of course ‘raw’ property adjoining the golf course has fallen statistically ‘out-of-contention’ since only one property was sold during the past year, in this category.

Since April of 2021 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $410 per square foot and semi-custom homes an identical ‘floor’ of $415 per square-foot to grow from. With six fully financed properties changing hands this past month, there wasn’t a most active neighborhood.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Six (6) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 17 February and 15 March (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 102 or 9.4% turnover rate for our community. From a National Publication (TheHill.com) this compares to the fact that only 8.4% of Americans live in a different home than they did a year ago and in Washoe County the number is 18.4% based upon the most recent census data. The aging of the U.S. population, a lack of new housing, and increased caution have produced the lowest rate of mobility recorded at any time since 1948. ArrowCreek remains at a very low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community. In fact, 196 (18.1%) of us have lived or owned property in ArrowCreek for more than 16 years.

b.) One home or property was recorded as sold on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) during this reporting period. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course now stands at $430.47 per square foot. Based upon the statistical rolling average calculation (only 15 homes are currently in the calculation. This creates a situation where a single sale above or below the average skews the data, which is what likely has taken place over past several months.), the price per square foot increased by $1.64 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price increased to $1,701,208.83, again based upon common statistical methods. No additional vacant parcels were sold and the rolling average selling price for undeveloped property on the golf course now stands at $361,544.79 per acre. It should be noted that there is only one (1) lot that make up this average and as a consequence, the statistical significance of this value is highly suspect.

c.) Five (5) homes and properties were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes increased to $450.94 per square foot, which is up by $10.18 per square foot, based on a sample size of 59 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes increased to $1,556,830.93. Two (2) additional vacant lots were sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing 0.23% above vacant golf course property at $362,358.67 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since April of 2021, prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. One of the stunning features of this chart is the absolute difference between non-golf and golf related homes. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder, as this ‘attitude’ may cause our prices to go lower to match those ‘down in the valley’ and, in fact, there is some evidence that that phenomenon is happening. Certainly the dirth of home sales adjoining the golf course may be one such indicator.

2. Spring is arriving slowly, and the housing market continues to be barely alive. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities and peace of mind, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained fairly constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since April 2021. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values along with ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes, both on and off the golf courses. However, as noted in the opening, only one home sold on the golf course in the past month.  Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective. ArrowCreek’s value appears to lie in our views, gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of about $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference between Reno Custom homes and Custom homes on the golf course. However, those ArrowCreek Custom homes not on ‘the course’ exhibit a $40 to $80 advantage to both internal and external Custom homes.

For the past month the ArrowCreek rolling averages are:

• Semi-Custom On-Course: $447.41 per Square Foot
• Semi-Custom Off-Course: $429.86 per Square Foot
• Custom On-Course: $411.11 per Square Foot
• Custom Off-Course: $492.05 per Square Foot

• • We also received a request from one of our readers for a comparison of the ArrowCreek values with those in D’Andrea (Sparks market), Somersett (Reno market) and Saddlehorn. Having obtained the appropriate reports from the real estate community, here is what was learned. (Data extracted from altosresearch.com Chase International)

• • • Reno market ‘in general’ – Custom homes in Reno are selling, on average, for $450.48 per square foot (Median price $1,995,000). The average days on the market was 21 days. As noted from above, you can see our ArrowCreek comparable golf course Custom homes on the golf course are selling at a discount to those in Reno, both custom and semi-custom. Data for separate ArrowCreek average time on market was not available. Reno homes comparable to ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes are selling for $331.50 per square foot (Median price $865,000) with a time-on-market of 14 days. Median prices rose across the Reno market by 25% during the comparable past year, as you can see from the chart, while ArrowCreek combined average prices were 28.6% higher.

• • • Sparks market ‘in general’ – Recently, some homes in Sparks have been identified as qualifying for ‘custom’ designation. These homes are definitely comparable to those in ArrowCreek from both a square footage and lot size perspective. The current average selling price for these homes is $288.88 per square foot (median price of $907,400) with a time on market of 14 days. The Sparks Semi-custom market actually compares with the Semi-Custom homes in ArrowCreek. The average price for these Sparks homes is $271.27 per square foot (Median price $654,450) with an average of 7 days on the market. Median prices rose across this market by 19.3% during the comparable past year.

• • • Saddlehorn – In reviewing the records for this development, the sample size was too small to obtain meaningful information.

Commentary: ArrowCreek Custom homes continue to be in the top two quartiles of Reno and the Semi-Custom homes are in the top quartile of Reno and Sparks. In addition, the data suggests that the ‘private’ golf course (a.k.a. The Non-Residential Area of ArrowCreek) has little or a negative impact on prices because ArrowCreek homes are selling at roughly comparable non-gated community homes in the Truckee Meadows based upon real estate advertising and the data compiled in this report. Also, the ArrowCreek Homeowners Association does not, repeat does not, have a financial or any other fiduciary interest in ‘The Club at ArrowCreek.’

Some owners of ArrowCreek believe they reside in a ‘golf community.’ Those words appear to emanate from those who have chosen to belong to the ‘private’ golf club. In their minds, it may be true; however, in fact, the truth is that only a third of the homes and lots are on the golf course and approximately 39% of owners are actually members of ‘The Club.’ Yes, we have a private golf club within our gated community that is not an HOA amenity, but we also enjoy the freedom to belong or not.

The ‘value proposition’ for our unique community should continue to focus on attracting professionals who value security, good schools, recreational opportunities, and the quietude of the High Desert. More people will come to ownership in ArrowCreek as Nevada businesses gather top talent with competitive salaries.

Please contribute your knowledge and energy to make our HOA better for all owners.

By Ron Duncan
March 31, 2022

For previous postings of the ArrowCreek property value updates: click here.

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course business (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs) and By-Laws). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations) is purely optional for all interested parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on a golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief  that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not necessarily based on factual data.

Our community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites, typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 482 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course. This report contains the data that was available on February 27, 2022, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records. These records appear to be current.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal rate of 7 (seven) properties. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (19.1% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 32.2% certainly should have qualified us for the list. These seven (7) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $5.7 Million! None of the properties was directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ Currently ‘non-golf course homes’ enjoy a sales price advantage of 2.7% ($11.93 per square-foot) advantage over ‘golf course’ homes, with the advantage clearly noticed, as you’ll read below, in the value of custom homes. However, it was also noted that semi-custom homes ‘on-the-course’ are showing a higher value than custom homes ‘on-the course,’ an unexpected observation. This ‘advantage’ has now spread to undeveloped land as the price, as you will also read shortly, is 31.2% higher for property that does not adjoin the golf course.

Since March of 2021 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $390 per square foot and semi-custom homes an identical ‘floor’ of $390 per square-foot to grow from. With seven fully financed properties changing hands this past month, the most active neighborhood was Painted Vista.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Seven (7) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 21 January and 16 February (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 110 or 10.2% turnover rate for our community. From a National Publication (TheHill.com) this compares to the fact that only 8.4% of Americans live in a different home than they did a year ago and in Washoe County the number is 18.4% based upon the most recent census data. The aging of the U.S. population, a lack of new housing, and increased caution have produced the lowest rate of mobility recorded at any time since 1948. ArrowCreek remains at a very low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community. In fact, 196 (18.1%) of us have lived or owned property in ArrowCreek for more than 16 Years.

b.) No homes or property was recorded as sold on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) during this reporting period. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course now stands at $428.83 per square foot. Based upon the statistical rolling average calculation (only 15 homes are in the calculation. This creates a situation where a single sale above or below the average skews the data, which is what likely has taken place over past several months.), the price per square foot increased by $5.56 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price decreased to $1,695,208.33, again based upon common statistical methods. No additional vacant parcels were sold and the rolling average selling price for undeveloped property on the golf course now stands at $232,264.61 per acre. It should be noted that there are only three (3) lots that make up this average and as a consequence, the statistical significance of this value is highly suspect.

c.) Four (4) homes were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes increased to $440.76 per square foot, which is up by $1.78 per square foot, based on a sample size of 61 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes decreased to $1,530,156.90. Three (3) additional vacant lots were sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing 31.2% above vacant golf course property at $337,519.64 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since March of 2021, prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. One of the stunning features of this chart is the absolute difference between non-golf and golf related homes. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder, as this ‘attitude’ may cause our prices to go lower to match those ‘down in the valley’ and, in fact, there is some evidence that that phenomenon is happening.

2. Spring is arriving slowly, and the housing market continues to be barely alive. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities and peace of mind, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained fairly constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since February 2021. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values along with ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes, both on and off the golf courses. However, as noted in the opening, absolutely no homes have sold on the golf course in the past month. Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective. ArrowCreek’s value appears to lie in our gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of about $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference within the surrounding communities.

For the past month the ArrowCreek rolling averages are:

• Semi-Custom On-Course: $440.18 per Square Foot
• Semi-Custom Off-Course: $426.39 per Square Foot
• Custom On-Course: $418.90 per Square Foot
• Custom Off-Course: $466.24 per Square Foot

• • We also received a request from one of our readers for a comparison of the ArrowCreek values with those in D’Andrea (Sparks market), Somersett (Reno market) and Saddlehorn. Having obtained the appropriate reports from the real estate community, here is what was learned. (Data extracted from altosresearch.com Chase International)

• • • Reno market ‘in general’ – Custom homes in Reno are selling, on average, for $437.37 per square foot (Median price $1,767,500). The average days on the market was 59 days. As noted from above, you can see our ArrowCreek comparable golf course Custom homes on the golf course are selling at a discount to those in Reno, both custom and semi-custom. Data for separate ArrowCreek average time on market was not available. Reno homes comparable to ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes are selling for $324.92 per square foot (Median price $860,350) with a time-on-market of 21 days. Median prices rose across the Reno market by 23.3% during the comparable past year, as you can see from the chart, while ArrowCreek combined average prices were 32.2% higher.

• • • Sparks market ‘in general’ – Recently, some homes in Sparks have been identified as qualifying for ‘custom’ designation. These homes are definitely comparable to those in ArrowCreek from both a square footage and lot size perspective. The current average selling price for these homes is $274.00 per square foot (median price of $888,660) with a time on market of 0 days. The Sparks Semi-Custom market actually compares with the Semi-Custom homes in ArrowCreek. The average price for these Sparks homes is $269.54 per square foot (Median price $640,000) with an average of 7 days on the market. Median prices rose across this market by 19.3% during the comparable past year. For the ArrowCreek community, the Semi-Custom homes have risen 45.1% over the same time period.

• • • Saddlehorn – In reviewing the records for this development, the sample size was too small to obtain meaningful information.

Commentary: ArrowCreek Custom homes continue to be in the top two quartiles of Reno and the Semi-Custom homes are in the top quartile of Reno and Sparks. In addition, the data suggests that the ‘private’ golf course (a.k.a. The Non-Residential Area of ArrowCreek) has little or a negative impact on prices because ArrowCreek homes are selling at roughly comparable non-gated community homes in the Truckee Meadows based upon real estate advertising and the data compiled in this report. Also, the ArrowCreek Homeowners Association does not, repeat does not, have a financial or any other fiduciary interest in ‘The Club at ArrowCreek.’

Some owners of ArrowCreek believe they reside in a ‘golf community.’ Those words appear to emanate from those who have chosen to belong to the ‘private’ golf club. In their minds, it may be true; however, in fact, the truth is that only a third of the homes and lots are on the golf course and 39% of owners are actually members of ‘The Club.’ Yes, we have a private golf club within our gated community that is not an HOA amenity, but we also enjoy the freedom to belong or not.

Two initiatives that are currently being considered by the ACHOA Board of Directors are an enhancement to landscaping along the entry to our community, requiring a ’loan’ of half a million dollars and a second more insidious effort to raise dues to fund reserves at a 70% level. Both of these initiatives can impact fixed income residents residents more heavily than those who continue to be employed. The community should be managed to maintain our high desert look and feel and not to impose a burden on fellow residents who enjoy our current environment. From the data in this report, neither of these initiatives will enhance our home values.

The ‘value proposition’ for our unique community should continue to focus on attracting professionals who value security, good schools, recreational opportunities, and the quietude of the High Desert. More people will come to ownership in ArrowCreek as Nevada businesses gather top talent with competitive salaries.

Please contribute your knowledge and energy to make our HOA better for all owners.

By Ron Duncan
March 3, 2022

For previous postings of the ArrowCreek property value updates: click here.

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course business (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs) and By-Laws). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations) is purely optional for all interested parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on a golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not necessarily based on factual data. Our community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites, typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 482 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course. This report contains the data that was available on January 28, 2022, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records, these records appear to be current.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal January rate of 3 (three) properties versus 7 (seven) for prior months. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (19.1% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 35.9% certainly should have qualified us for the list. These three (3) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $2.8 Million! One (1) of the properties was directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ Currently ‘non-golf course homes’ enjoy a sales price advantage of 3.6% ($15.71 per square-foot) advantage over ‘golf course’ homes, with the advantage clearly noticed, as you’ll read below, in the value of custom homes. However, it was also noted that semi-custom homes ‘on-the-course’ are showing a higher value than custom homes ‘on-the course,’ an unexpected observation. This ‘advantage’ has now spread to undeveloped land as the price, as you will also read shortly, is 4.4% higher for property that does not adjoin the golf course.

Since February of 2021 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $360 per square foot and semi-custom homes a ‘floor’ of $360 per square-foot to grow from. With only three fully financed properties changing hands this past month, there was no most active neighborhood.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Three (3) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 7 December and 18 January (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 116 or 10.7% turnover rate for our community. From a National Publication (TheHill.com) this compares to the fact that only 8.4% of Americans live in a different home than they did a year ago and in Washoe County the number is 18.4% based upon the most recent census data. The aging of the U.S. population, a lack of new housing, and increased caution during the pandemic have produced the lowest rate of mobility recorded at any time since 1948. ArrowCreek remains at a low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community.

b.) One (1) home on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) was closed during this reporting period. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course now stands at $423.27 per square foot. Based upon the statistical rolling average calculation (only 16 homes are in the calculation. This creates a situation where a single sale above or below the average skews the data, which is what likely has taken place over past several months.), the price per square foot increased by $5.90 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price decreased to $1,715,820.31, again based upon common statistical methods. No additional vacant parcels were sold and the rolling average selling price for undeveloped property on the golf course now stands at $316,949.96 per acre.

c.) One (1) home was sold that is not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes increased to $438.98 per square foot, which is up by $7.56 per square foot, based on a sample size of 58 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes increased to $1,562,802.95. One (1) additional vacant lot was sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing 4.4% above vacant golf course property at $331,550.34 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since February of 2021 prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. One of the stunning features of this chart is the absolute difference between non-golf and golf related homes. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder, as this ‘attitude’ may cause our prices to go lower to match those ‘down in the valley.’

2. Winter has definitely arrived, and the housing market continues to be barely alive. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities and peace of mind, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained fairly constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since January 2021. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values along with ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes, no matter the immediate environment they are located within.  Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective. ArrowCreek’s value appears to lie in our gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of about $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference.

For the past month the ArrowCreek rolling averages are:

• Semi-Custom On-Course: $440.18 per Square Foot
• Semi-Custom Off-Course: $419.67 per Square Foot
• Custom On-Course: $410.12 per Square Foot
• Custom Off-Course: $468.36 per Square Foot

• • We also received a request from one of our readers for a comparison of the ArrowCreek values with those in D’Andrea (Sparks market), Somersett (Reno market) and Saddlehorn. Having obtained the appropriate reports from the real estate community, here is what was learned. (Data extracted from altosresearch.com Chase International)

• • • Reno market ‘in general’ – Custom homes in Reno are selling, on average, for $431.88 per square foot (Median price $2,224,000). The average days on the market was 84 days. As noted from above, you can see our ArrowCreek comparable golf course Custom homes are selling in the same price range without a lot of differentiation from those in Reno, both custom and semi-custom. Data for separate ArrowCreek average time on market was not available. Reno homes comparable to ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes are selling for $322.98 per square foot (Median price $864,500) with a time-on-market of 42 days. Median prices rose across the Reno market by 23.3% during the comparable past year, as you can see from the chart, while ArrowCreek combined average prices were 35.9% higher.

• • • Sparks market ‘in general’ – Recently, some homes in Sparks have been identified as qualifying for ‘custom’ designation. These homes are definitely comparable to those in ArrowCreek from both a square footage and lot size perspective. The current average selling price for these homes is $274.00 per square foot (median price of $888,660) with a time on market of 91 days. The Sparks Semi-custom market actually compares with the Semi-Custom homes in ArrowCreek. The average price for these Sparks homes is $264.71 per square foot (Median price $672,500) with an average of 28 days on the market. Median prices rose across this market by 20.5% during the comparable past year. For the ArrowCreek community, the Semi-Custom homes have risen 54% over the same time period.

• • • Saddlehorn – In reviewing the records for this development, the sample size was too small to obtain meaningful information.

Commentary: ArrowCreek Custom homes continue to be in the top two quartiles of Reno and the Semi-Custom homes are in the top quartile of Reno and Sparks. In addition, the data suggests that the ‘private’ golf course (a.k.a. The Non-Residential Area of ArrowCreek) has little or a negative impact on prices because ArrowCreek homes are selling at roughly comparable non-gated community homes in the Truckee Meadows based upon real estate advertising and the data compiled in this report. Also, the ArrowCreek Homeowners Association does not, repeat does not, have a financial or any other fiduciary interest in ‘The Club at ArrowCreek.’

Some owners of ArrowCreek believe they reside in a ‘golf community.’ Those words appear to emanate from those who have chosen to belong to the ‘private’ golf club. In their minds, it may be true; however, in fact, the truth is that only a third of the homes and lots are on the golf course and 39% of owners are actually members of ‘The Club.’ Yes, we have a private golf club within our gated community that is not an HOA amenity, but we also enjoy the freedom to belong or not.

Two initiatives that are currently being considered by the ACHOA Board of Directors are an enhancement to landscaping along the entry to our community, requiring a ’loan’ of half a million dollars and a second more insidious effort to raise dues to fund reserves at a 70% level. Both of these initiatives can impact fixed income residents residents more heavily than those who continue to be employed. The community should be managed to maintain our high desert look and feel and not to impose a burden on fellow residents who enjoy our current environment. From the data in this report, neither of these initiatives will enhance our home values.

The ‘value proposition’ for our unique community should continue to focus on attracting professionals who value security, good schools, and recreational opportunities. More people will come to ownership in ArrowCreek as Nevada businesses gather top talent with competitive salaries.

By Ron Duncan
February 3, 2022

For previous postings of the ArrowCreek property value updates: click here.

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs) and By-Laws). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations in Northern Nevada) is purely optional for all interested parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on a golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not necessarily based on factual data from Northern Nevada. Our community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites, typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 482 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course. This report contains the data that was available on December 26, 2021, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records, these records appear to be two to three weeks behind posting, potentially due to COVID or reporting bottlenecks, as compiled and analyzed by the author.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal December rate of 4 (four) properties versus 7 (seven) for prior months. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (19.1% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 34.6% certainly should have qualified us for the list. These four (4) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $5.9 Million! One (1) of the properties was directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ Currently ‘non-golf course homes’ enjoy a sales price advantage of 3.3% ($14.05 per square-foot) advantage over ‘golf course’ homes, with the advantage clearly noticed, as you’ll read below, in the value of custom homes. However, it was also noted that semi-custom homes ‘on-the-course’ are showing a higher value than custom homes ‘on-the course,’ an unexpected observation. This ‘advantage’ does not hold up for undeveloped land as the price, as you will also read shortly, is 1.3% higher for property adjoining the golf course.

Since January of 2021 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $360 per square foot and semi-custom homes a ‘floor’ of $330 per square-foot to grow from. With four fully financed properties changing hands this past month, there was no most active neighborhood.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Four (4) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 30 November and 7 December (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 124 or 11.4% turnover rate for our community. From a National Publication (TheHill.com) this compares to the fact that only 8.4% of Americans live in a different home than they did a year ago. The aging of the U.S. population, a lack of new housing, and increased caution during the pandemic have produced the lowest rate of mobility recorded at any time since 1948. ArrowCreek remains a low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community.

b.) One (1) home on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) was closed during this reporting period. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course now stands at $417.37 per square foot. Based upon the statistical rolling average calculation (17 homes are in the calculation. This creates a situation where a single sale above or below the average skews the data, which is what likely has taken place over past several months.), the price per square foot increased by $12.02 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price decreased to $1,831,066.18, again based upon common statistical methods. No additional vacant parcels were sold and the rolling average selling price for undeveloped property on the golf course now stands at $328,112.90 per acre.

c.) Three (3) homes were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes increased to $431.42 per square foot, which is up by $6.16 per square foot, based on a sample size of 62 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes increased to $1,518,735.02. No additional vacant lots were sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing 1.3% below vacant golf course property at $323,885.17 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since January of 2021 prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. One of the stunning features of this chart is the absolute difference between non-golf and golf related homes. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder…

2. Winter has definitely arrived, and the housing market continues to be alive even though water resources are tight. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained fairly constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since January 2021. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values along with ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes, no matter the immediate environment they are located within.  Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective. ArrowCreek’s value appears to lie in our gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference.

For the past month the ArrowCreek rolling averages are:

• Semi-Custom On-Course: $453.73 per Square Foot
• Semi-Custom Off-Course: $411.47 per Square Foot
• Custom On-Course: $405.56 per Square Foot
• Custom Off-Course: $463.00 per Square Foot

• • We also received a request from one of our readers for a comparison of the ArrowCreek values with those in D’Andrea (Sparks market), Somersett (Reno market) and Saddlehorn. Having obtained the appropriate reports from the real estate community, here is what was learned. (Data extracted from altosresearch.com Chase International)

• • • Reno market ‘in general’ – Custom homes in Reno are selling, on average, for $419.62 per square foot (Median price $1,750,000). The average days on the market was 63 days. As noted from above, you can see our ArrowCreek comparable Custom homes are selling in the same price range without a lot of differentiation. Data for separate ArrowCreek average time on market was not available. Reno homes comparable to ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes are selling for $320.72 per square foot (Median price $887,704) with a time-on-market of 42 days. Median prices rose across the Reno market by 23.9% during the comparable past year, as you can see from the chart, while ArrowCreek combined average prices were 34.6% higher.

• • • Sparks market ‘in general’ – The top quartile in the Sparks market actually compares with the Semi-Custom homes in ArrowCreek. The average price for these Sparks homes is $256.84 per square foot (Median price $889,000) with an average of 56 days on the market. Median prices rose across this market by 19% during the comparable past year. For the ArrowCreek community, the Semi-Custom homes rose 52.2% over the same time period.

• • • Saddlehorn – In reviewing the records for this development, the sample size was too small to obtain meaningful information.

Commentary: ArrowCreek Custom homes continue to be in the top two quartiles of Reno and the Semi-Custom homes are in the top quartile of Reno and Sparks. In addition, the data suggests that the ‘private’ golf course (a.k.a. The Non-Residential Area of ArrowCreek) has little or a negative impact on prices because ArrowCreek homes are selling at roughly comparable non-gated community homes in the Truckee Meadows based upon real estate advertising and the data compiled in this report.

Some owners of ArrowCreek believe they reside in a ‘golf community.’ Those words appear to emanate from those who have chosen to belong to the ‘private’ golf club. In their minds, it may be true; however, in fact, the truth is that only a third of the homes and lots are on the golf course and 39% of owners are actually members of ‘The Club.’ Yes, we have a private golf club within our gated community that is not an HOA amenity, but we also enjoy the freedom to belong or not.

Two initiatives that are currently being considered by the ACHOA Board of Directors are an enhancement to landscaping along the entry to our community, requiring a ’loan’ of half a million dollars and a second more insidious effort to raise dues to fund reserves at a 70% level. Both of these initiatives can impact fixed income residents residents more heavily than those who continue to be employed. The community should be managed to maintain our high desert look and feel and not to impose a burden on fellow residents who enjoy our current environment. From the data in this report, neither of these initiatives will enhance our home values.

The ‘value proposition’ for our unique community should continue to focus on attracting professionals who value security, good schools, and recreational opportunities. More people will come to ownership in ArrowCreek as Nevada businesses gather top talent with competitive salaries.

By Ron Duncan
December 30, 2021

For previous postings of the ArrowCreek property value updates: click here.

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation, By-Laws and the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs)). Participation in the private club (i.e., HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations in Northern Nevada) is purely optional for all interested parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on a golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not necessarily based on factual data from Northern Nevada. Our community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites, typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 482 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course. This report contains the data that was available on November 26, 2021, from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records, these records appear to be two to three weeks behind posting, potentially due to COVID or reporting bottlenecks, as compiled and analyzed by the author.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal rate of 7 (seven) properties versus 6 (six) for prior months. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal, or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (19.1% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 34.1% certainly should have qualified us for the list. These seven (7) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $8.8 Million! Two (2) of the properties were directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ Currently ‘non-golf course homes’ enjoy a sales price advantage of 4.7% ($19.91 per square-foot) advantage over ‘golf course’ homes, with the advantage squarely noticed, as you’ll read below, in the value of custom homes.  This ‘advantage’ does not hold up for undeveloped land as the price, as you will also read shortly, is 1.3% higher for property adjoining the golf course.

Since December of 2020 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $360 per square foot and semi-custom homes a ‘floor’ of $330 per square-foot to grow from. With seven fully financed properties changing hands this past month, Granite Point I was the most active neighborhood.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Seven (7) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 27 October and 19 November (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 125 or 11.5% turnover rate for our community. This remains a low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community. Additionally, we are faced with a rising economy as the fall buying season is here and ‘investors’ see an increasing value within our community.

b.) One (1) home on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) was closed during this reporting period. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course now stands at $405.35 per square foot. Based upon the statistical rolling average calculation (17 homes are in the calculation. This creates a situation where a single sale above or below the average skews the data, which is what likely has taken place over past several months.), the price per square foot increased by $7.63 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price decreased to $1,777,823.53, again based upon common statistical methods. One (1) additional vacant parcel was sold and the rolling average selling price for undeveloped property on the golf course now stands at $328,112.90 per acre.

c.) Five (5) homes were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes increased to $425.26 per square foot, which is up by $11.59 per square foot, based on a sample size of 63 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes decreased to $1,497,499.54. No additional vacant lots were sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing 1.3% below vacant golf course property at $323,885.17 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since December of 2020 prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was on the order of $200 as opposed to where it is today. One of the stunning features of this chart is the absolute difference between non-golf and golf related homes. An interesting observation was provided recently that may account for some or most of this difference. The observation was from a Damonte Ranch resident who belongs to ‘The Club.’ “I get all the ‘amenities’ of ArrowCreek with my golf membership without the ‘high cost’ of owning a home there.” Something to ponder…

2. Fall has arrived, and the housing market continues to be alive even though water resources are getting tight. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained fairly constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since July 2020. Furthermore, values of Custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values along with ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes, no matter the immediate environment they are located within.  Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective. ArrowCreek’s value appears to lie in our gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference.

• For the past month the ArrowCreek rolling averages are:
• Semi-Custom On-Course: $410.59 per Square Foot
• Semi-Custom Off-Course: $402.04 per Square Foot
• Custom On-Course: $402.28 per Square Foot
• Custom Off-Course: $463.00 per Square Foot

• • We also received a request from one of our readers for a comparison of the ArrowCreek values with those in D’Andrea (Sparks market), Somersett (Reno market) and Saddlehorn. Having obtained the appropriate reports from the real estate community, here is what was learned. (Data extracted from altosresearch.com Chase International)

• • • Reno market ‘in general’ – Custom homes in Reno are selling, on average, for $414.41 per square foot (Median price $1,724,500). The average days on the market was 49 days. As noted from above, you can see our ArrowCreek comparable Custom homes are selling in the same price range without a lot of differentiation. Data for separate ArrowCreek average time on market was not available. Reno homes comparable to ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes are selling for $315.73 per square foot (Median price $850,000) with a time-on-market of 28 days. Median prices rose across the Reno market by 25.1% during the comparable past year, as you can see from the chart, while ArrowCreek combined average prices were 39.8% higher.

• • • Sparks market ‘in general’ – The top quartile in the Sparks market actually compares with the Semi-Custom homes in ArrowCreek. The average price for these Sparks homes is $255.24 per square foot (Median price $875,000) with an average of 35 days on the market. Median prices rose across this market by 19.7% during the comparable past year. For the ArrowCreek community, the Semi-Custom homes rose 47.2% over the same time period.

• • • Saddlehorn – In reviewing the records for this development, the sample size was too small to obtain meaningful information.

Commentary: ArrowCreek Custom homes continue to be in the top two quartiles of Reno and the Semi-Custom homes are in the top quartile of Reno and Sparks. In addition, the data suggests that the ‘private’ golf course (a.k.a. The Non-Residential Area of ArrowCreek) has little or a negative effect on prices because ArrowCreek homes are selling at roughly comparable non-gated community homes in the Truckee Meadows based upon real estate advertising and the data compiled in this report.

Some owners of ArrowCreek believe they reside in a ‘golf community.’ Those words appear to emanate from those who have chosen to belong to the ‘private’ golf club. In their minds, it may be true; however, in fact, the truth is that only a third of the homes and lots are on the golf course and 39% of owners are actually members of ‘The Club.’ Yes, we have a private golf club within our gated community that is not an HOA amenity, but we also enjoy the freedom to belong or not.

Two initiatives that are currently being considered by the ACHOA Board of Directors are an enhancement to landscaping along the entry to our community, requiring a ’loan’ of half a million dollars and a second more insidious effort to raise dues to fund reserves at a 70% level. Both of these initiatives can impact fixed income residents. The community should be managed to maintain our high desert look and feel and not to impose a burden on fellow residents who enjoy our current environment. From the data in this report, neither of these initiatives will enhance our home values.

The ‘value proposition’ for our unique community should continue to focus on attracting professionals who value security, good schools, and recreational opportunities. More people will come to ownership in ArrowCreek as Nevada businesses gather top talent with competitive salaries.

By Ron Duncan
November 28, 2021

For previous postings of the ArrowCreek property value updates: click here.

Welcome to the ArrowCreek monthly property value update for a High Desert, Semi-Rural community in Washoe County, Nevada, that just happens to contain a PRIVATE Golf Course (A.K.A. the Non-Residential Area as documented in the Articles of Incorporation and the Covenants, Conditions and Restrictions (CC&Rs)). Participation in the private club (i.e. HOA residents do not have a financial interest nor obligation to ‘The Club,’ which is not true for all Associations in Northern Nevada) is purely optional for all interested parties. The origins of this report were based on a heated discussion of the value of homes on a golf course versus those not on a golf course, which is likely different for other communities, and, as you’ll observe, the belief that homes on a course are worth more is a ‘belief’ not necessarily based on factual data from Northern Nevada. Our community is financially diverse having been created that way by the designer of the community and Washoe County in 1997. It consists of 506 Semi-Custom homes, typically for middle and upper middle-income individuals, and 577 Custom home sites, typically for upper middle and high net worth individuals, of which 479 custom homes have or are being built. Approximately one third of the lots are directly adjacent to the golf course. This report contains the data that was available on October 30, 2021 from the Washoe County Assessor’s Records, these records appear to be two to three weeks behind potentially due to COVID or reporting bottlenecks,  as compiled and analyzed by the author.

During this past month the number of properties changing owners was at a nominal rate of 6 (six) properties versus 6 (six) for last month. This data appears to be in agreement with national publications and local real estate and banking professionals. We did not make the list of the hottest local markets per Kiplinger, the Wall Street Journal or the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller national home price index (19.1% increase), BUT our year-over-year price gain of 30.1% certainly should have qualified us for the list. These six (6) properties that changed owners over this past month had a total value of $7.0 Million! None of the properties were directly adjoining the ‘golf course.’ So, currently ‘non-golf course homes’ enjoy a sales price advantage of 3.9% ($15.95 per square-foot) advantage over ‘golf course’ homes, with the advantage squarely noticed, as you’ll read below, in the value of custom homes.  This ‘advantage’ does not hold up for undeveloped land as the price, as you will also read shortly, is 8.7% higher for property adjoining the golf course.

Since November of 2020 and over the past twelve (12) months:

1. Custom ArrowCreek homes appear to have established a ‘floor’ of $340 per square foot and semi-custom homes a ‘floor’ of $310 per square-foot to grow from. With six fully financed properties changing hands this past month, there wasn’t a most active neighborhood.

On with THE FACTS:

a.) Six (6) properties were recorded sold in ArrowCreek between 13 September and 8 October (per the Washoe County Assessor). This brings the total number of properties transferred over the past rolling year to 133 or 12.3% turnover rate for our community. This remains a low rate that may be attributed to a general satisfaction with living in our gated community, or the higher prices of properties and/or a positive perspective on our amenities and an emphasis on the secure stable environment offered within ArrowCreek. Additionally, we are faced with a rising economy as the fall buying season is here and ‘investors’ see an increasing value within our community.

b.) One (1) home on the golf course (where the property boundaries actually touch the golf course, not just have a ‘view’ of it) was closed during this reporting period. The rolling average selling price for homes on the golf course now stands at $397.72 per square foot. Based upon the statistical rolling average calculation (18 homes are in the calculation. This creates a situation where a single sale above or below the average skews the data, which is what likely has taken place over past several months.), the price per square foot increased by $14.24 per square-foot due to the rolling year statistical calculation. The 12-month rolling average sales price increased to $1,789,611.11, again based upon statistical methods. No additional vacant parcels were sold and the rolling average selling price for undeveloped property on the golf course stands at $344,099.35 per acre.

c.) Four (4) homes were sold that are not connected to the golf course. The rolling average selling price for off-course homes increased to $413.67 per square foot, which is up by $8.61 per square foot, based on a sample size of 62 homes. The twelve-month rolling average sales price for non-golf course homes increased to $1,506,862.44. One additional vacant lot was sold, making the rolling 12-month average selling price for vacant land, not on the golf course, standing 8.7% below vacant golf course property at $316,479.18 per acre.

d.) The figure below shows the value trends over the past twelve months with the vertical scale being the cost per square foot. It should be noted that since July of 2020 prices have been steadily increasing across the ArrowCreek market and across the Washoe Valley in general. Additionally, it was noted that five years ago the nominal price per square foot was $200 as opposed to where we are today.

2. Fall has arrived, and the housing market is very much alive even though water resources are getting tight. For those desiring a secure, safe environment to raise a family or to have abundant recreational opportunities, ArrowCreek should not be over-looked.

Do keep in mind that everyone’s selling price is based upon his or her own set of circumstances and the above picture/figure is hindsight, not necessarily foresight. From the volume of property transfers during this reporting period it is clear that the demand for a secure property environment has remained constant. A balanced marketing approach focused on our amenities should go a long way toward creating a better environment for all homeowners and buyers.

Continuing with the commentary from previous months: the author received queries about Semi-Custom and Custom homes both on and off the golf course and their relative selling prices with respect to those found in Reno and Sparks. The following chart portrays the trend lines for Custom and Semi-Custom homes within this broader community. From the chart it is clear that home values have been steadily increasing since July 2020. Furthermore, values of custom homes within Truckee Meadows, especially those in Reno and on the ArrowCreek golf course, have managed to exhibit nearly the same values, no matter the immediate environment they are located within. However, it came as a shock this month when the value of ArrowCreek semi-custom homes, on the golf course, nearly matched the value of custom homes on the course. Also, the value of Semi-Custom homes, of comparable home and land size, indicate that both Reno and Sparks offer greater value per square foot than ArrowCreek from a pure price perspective. ArrowCreek’s value appears to lie in our gated security, quality of adjacent schools and our other amenities which amounts to a premium of $70 per square-foot for our Semi-Custom homes. Obviously, this is not true for our Custom homes as we enjoy the same ambience, but there is little price difference.

• For the past month the ArrowCreek rolling averages are:
• Semi-Custom On-Course: $405.53 per Square Foot
• Semi-Custom Off-Course: $388.84 per Square Foot
• Custom On-Course: $394.72 per Square Foot
• Custom Off-Course: $452.99 per Square Foot

• • We also received a request from one of our readers for a comparison of the ArrowCreek values with those in D’Andrea (Sparks market), Somersett (Reno market) and Saddlehorn. Having obtained the appropriate reports from the real estate community, here is what was learned. (Data extracted from altosresearch.com Chase International)

• • • Reno market ‘in general’ – Custom homes in Reno are selling, on average, for $406.95 per square foot (Median price $1,750,000). The average days on the market was 49 days. As noted from above, you can see our ArrowCreek comparable Custom homes are selling in the same price range without a lot of differentiation. Data for separate ArrowCreek average time on market was not available. Reno homes comparable to ArrowCreek Semi-Custom homes are selling for $312.40 per square foot (Median price $870,000) with a time-on-market up seven days from last month to 28 days. Median prices rose across the Reno market by 25.2% during the comparable past year, as you can see from the chart, while ArrowCreek combined average prices were 35.7% higher.

• • • Sparks market ‘in general’ – The top quartile in the Sparks market actually compares with the Semi-Custom homes in ArrowCreek. The average price for these Sparks homes is $253.19 per square foot (Median price $875,000) with an average of 14 days on the market. Median prices rose across this market by 21% during the comparable past year. For the ArrowCreek community, the Semi-Custom homes rose 42% over the same time period.

• • • Saddlehorn – In reviewing the records for this development, the sample size was too small to obtain meaningful information.

Commentary: ArrowCreek homes continue to be in the top two quartiles of Reno and the Semi-Custom homes are in the top quartile of Reno and Sparks. In addition, the data suggests that the ‘private’ golf course (a.k.a. The Non-Residential Area of ArrowCreek) has little effect on prices because ArrowCreek homes are selling at roughly comparable non-gated community homes in the Truckee Meadows based upon real estate advertising and the data compiled in this report.

Some owners of ArrowCreek believe they reside in a ‘golf community.’ Those words appear to emanate from those who have chosen to belong to the ‘private’ golf club. In their minds, it may be true; however, in fact, the truth is that only a third of the homes and lots are on the golf course and 39% of owners are actually members of ‘The Club.’ Yes, we have a private golf club within our gated community that is not an HOA amenity, but we also enjoy the freedom to belong or not.

Two initiatives that are currently being considered by the ACHOA Board of Directors are an enhancement to landscaping along the entry to our community, requiring a ’loan’ of half a million dollars and a second more insidious effort to raise dues to fund reserves at a 70% level. Both of these initiatives can impact fixed income residents. The community should be managed to maintain our high desert look and feel and not to impose a burden on fellow residents who enjoy our current environment. From the data in this report, neither of these initiatives will enhance our home values.

The ‘value proposition’ for our unique community should continue to focus on attracting professionals who value security, good schools and recreational opportunities. More people will come to ownership in ArrowCreek as Nevada businesses gather top talent with competitive salaries.

By Ron Duncan
October 31, 2021

For previous postings of the ArrowCreek property value updates: click here.