Analysis of Golf Course Closure Impacts on Home Sales Price Trends

Brian Bonnenfant, Project Manager for the Center for Regional Studies, College of Business at the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR), was commissioned by The Concerned Neighbors of ArrowCreek (CNA) to do the Analysis of Golf Course Closure Impacts on Home Sales Price Trends study and report. It reviews property values of D’Andrea and Northgate prior to and post golf course closure. You are welcome to review it and draw your own conclusions; however, after the closing of the golf courses, property value trends follow economic trends with no difference noted between those properties adjacent to the golf course and those that are not.

Single‐family properties directly adjacent to the D’Andrea and Northgate golf course land were analyzed for property value trends before and after the closure of their respective golf courses to determine the impacts of the golf course closures on property values. The analysis is based on transactions that occurred between 2004 and 2015 (1st quarter) as reported by the Washoe County Assessor’s Office using the “RDEQuickinfo” file.

Mr. Ron Duncan, leader of the CNA group, presented the just published “Analysis of Golf Course Closure Impacts on Home Sales Price Trends” report to Mr. Sam Fox, President of the ArrowCreek HOA at the ACHOA Board of Directors’ meeting this evening. Final version is available here.

For further reference, other Bonnenfant reports are here:

Housing Market Expectations in Northern Nevada – Feb 12, 2015
LINK or PDF

Economic Forecast – 2015 Preview

Annual Presentations to Reno City Council:

Current Regional Economic Overview, April 21, 2015
Current Economic Review 2015 PDF

Regional Economic Overview, April 16, 2014
LINK or PDF

Regional Economic Overview, April 24, 2013
LINK or PDF

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This entry was posted in ArrowCreek, ArrowCreek HOA, ArrowCreek411, Brian Bonnenfant, CNA, Concerned Neighbors of ArrowCreek, D’Andrea, Golf Course Closure, Home Values, Land Value Study, Northgate Golf Course and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to Analysis of Golf Course Closure Impacts on Home Sales Price Trends

  1. Reblogged this on ArrowCreek 411 and commented:

    Obviously some folks last night at the ACHOA Communications Committee Informational Meeting haven’t paid attention to this study, I repeat it here. Not that there is any chance that they would read it on their own but to make it easier for any of the AC411 readers to point it out as they see fit. There was no preconceived conclusion given as guidance to Mr. Bonnefant at the beginning of the study so the conclusions are his professional ones alone – based on his extensive expertise.

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  2. paulwburkett says:

    I thank the Concerned Citizens for developing this report. This was a step in the right direction in providing information to the ACHOA community.

    However, I am reluctant to accept all of the conclusions offered by Mr. Duncan. Specifically, Mr. Bonnefant never included in his analysis the public/private interest that came together to create the Sierra Vista Public Park that will occupy the old Northgate Golf Course. The City of Reno purchased part of the property for $2,500,000 and the city formed a Special Assessment District after 2/3 of the adjacent property owners agreed to pay $1,200,000 of additional special assessment funding for the purchase. The Washoe County Parks department contributed and additional $400,000 for the purchase of the land from the developer. The property was transferred to the CIty of Reno and is now being made into a public park called Sierra Vista.

    I strongly believe that the adjacent homeowner vote and subsequent special assessment for the purchase has allowed for the stability in home values within the Northgate area. This was not referenced in the Mr. Bonnefant’s report and should have been. This information tracks with previous information that ACHOA members have received concerning impact on home values because of parks and golf courses within a community. This is not a Myth Mr. Duncan but a reality that a community that makes decisions about their future can impact the value of their property. In this case, the Northgate home values will be maintained because of a commitment to have a public park in the middle of their community. This is a success story for the Northgate community that the ACHOA members should consider.

    In addition, the report properly reflects that D’Andrea Golf Course Homes lost relative home value ranging from 13% to 38% depending on the year and comparison area chosen. (Relative 2015 Q price/ft) This information strongly supports the analysis that the ArrowCreek Community Club Committee presented to the Board and Community last August 2014 – D’Andrea vs. ArrowCreek Home Values.

    It is incumbent that the ACHOA members review all the data to make their own informed decisions concerning the impact of parks and golf courses within a gated community like ArrowCreek.

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    • Ronald Duncan says:

      Paul,
      Your points are well taken. However, the UNR study was focused on property values of properties adjoining a golf course and the effect of the golf course closing. It was not focused on what happens after the closing other than the property values themselves.
      The purchase of the Northgate golf course was not a consideration and in fact with the dates of that purchase known it could be added as a reference point on the graph. However, the economic factors in play over the time period would certainly mask any benefit from a park selection. Furthermore, the study of Northgate very clearly shows that golf course adjacent properties followed market forces and were not subject to the ‘myth’ that they were worth more.
      Why in the world does the ACCC, and the Communications Committee Chair, continue to focus on D’Andrea? There is absolutely no comparison to ArrowCreek , and it should never have been presented as a comparison of ‘what could happen.’ There is no comparison as the houses and lots are smaller without any amenities. This is not the case at ArrowCreek. All it did was create a boogeyman to be used by the ACCC and proponents of golf course acquisition. The UNR study clearly shows that golf course property values in D’Andrea have recovered, as they have throughout Washoe County, and are indeed following market rates. Those who bought into the Suburban Legend of golf course value certainly were hit harder than the general population (that is clearly shown in the study).
      Certainly, ALL of the property owners of Arrowcreek will have a voice in the future of our community. Perhaps they will choose to expand our current amenities, assuming that is a choice, or they will choose to encumber their properties with the acquisition of the golf course. In any case, they will, under the conditions of the CC&Rs and the Articles of Incorporation, make a choice on the future.
      Ron Duncan

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      • Ronald Duncan says:

        Subject: RE: D’Andrea and Northgate Analysis

        We shared the study internally and with the county assessor’s office. The next step is to re-build our website so that we can use it to disseminate the report.

        I really appreciated all the feedback you and Ron provided during the process.

        Brian P Bonnenfant
        Project Manager
        Center for Regional Studies,
        University of Nevada, Reno

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  3. Ben Collins says:

    Clarification of the Lost Property Home Values at D’Andrea and Northgate

    On June 9, 2015 Rod Duncan published a letter on this site and in an email blast, referencing a report the CNA group commissioned entitled, “Analysis of Golf Course Closure Impacts on Home Sales Price Trends”. The report compares prices per square foot of homes along the golf course in D”Andrea and Northgate to homes in Spanish Springs, City of Sparks and Washoe County.

    In the summary paragraph of results for D’Andrea, the report states: “The analysis shows that the closure of the D’Andrea Golf Course significantly decreased the property values of homes on the golf course”

    In the summary paragraph discussing the results for Northgate the report states: “The very small change in differences between the comparison of prices per square foot before and after the golf course closure indicates that the closure of the Northgate Golf Course did not significantly affect property values of the homes on the golf course.”

    Mr. Duncan in his letter states: “…however, after the closing of the golf courses, property value trends follow economic trends with no difference noted between those properties adjacent to the golf course and those that are not.” The D’Andrea homes clearly lost value and the data is unclear on the Northgate homes. The author did not say that in his report.

    As to the Northgate community, the study lacks a significant and important discussion. I understand that Northgate is now struggling with trying to protect its home values by figuring out how to keep the old golf course from turning into an ugly fire hazard. I believe that one group of neighbors bought a small section of the old course for more than a million dollars, and is now struggling with how to fund ongoing maintenance. The county has been asked to help Northgate fund a small park — an option a gated community without general public access (i.e., ArrowCreek) does not have. Money will be needed to keep Northgate safe because the golf course firebreak is no longer there. Was that considered in this recent study? Since the ArrowCreek Board seems more inclined than this narrow study to look at the complete picture, I ask the Board to provide information concerning the complete discussion in some public presentation.

    Ben Collins
    853-3849
    benjaminicoll@charter.net

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    • Ronal Duncan says:

      Ben,
      The myopic perspective to try and preserve the ‘big lie’ about golf courses providing significant value to homes is merely a myth that seems to fascinate only about 20% of the population. In reviewing your latest data analysis observation, it’s apparent that the BIG PICTURE seems to elude those supporting, or even being a member of the FOA.
      There isn’t a conflict between the UNR study of closed golf courses and the FACTS of property sales in ArrowCreek. Yes, properties on the D’Andrea golf course lost value. However, the ONLY amenity that D’Andrea had was a builder provided golf course. With its closure property values have now begun to follow the housing market in the Sparks and Spanish Springs area, as one would expect.
      As for Northgate, property values tended to follow the market for Reno and Washoe County from the beginning including the closure of the golf course. Northgate has a lot going for it as does ArrowCreek. In FACT, our current property values, in this zone of Washoe County, are approximately $100 per Sq-Ft higher than other relative neighborhoods, including Double Diamond.
      The MYTH you’re continuing to try to defend is just that, a MYTH. There is no need for the ACHOA to pursue acquiring the golf course from the FOA or any other organization. Dedicating the property to Nevada Wilderness would certainly appear to be an option for the owners.
      Once again, your analysis of data is faulty but I appreciate your attempts. An open meeting with all parties and their data won’t dissuade the ACHOA Board one way or the other from continuing this foolishness. They need two votes, one advisory to pursue the acquisition (requires 50%+1 affirmative votes of property owners) and a second to authorize the encumbrance of our properties(requires 2/3 affirmative votes of property owners).
      Ron Duncan

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